HOW BLEAK IS THE
SITUATION OF BLACK MONEY IN INDIA?
The issue of black
money has been making the rounds for several years now and it appears to have
become more of a political issue than an economic one. I have been a student of
Economics for over 2 decades and I wonder what this issue all about is? What is
being said is that this money stashed in Swiss bank is ill gotten by the
depositors and is to the tune of 1,456 Lac Crores. One of Anna Hazare’s sites
says the following:
Do you know
what will happen if 1,456 Lac Crores comes back?
1. India will be Financially
No.1
2. Each district will get 60000 Crores & each village will get 100
Crores3. No need to pay taxes for next 20 yrs.
4. Petrol 25 Rs, Diesel 15 Rs, Milk 8 Rs.
5. No need to pay electricity bill.
6. Indian borders will become stronger than the China Wall.
7. 1500 Oxford like Universities can be opened.
8. 28,000 kms Rubber road (like in Paris) can be made.
9. 2,000 hospitals (with all facilities) all medicine Free.
10. 95 crore people will have their own house.
While,
I am supporter of Anna Hazare against Corruption in India, my understanding of
Economics says that this is not possible. According to me if this money is
brought into circulation, the Indian economy will collapse and we will have to carry
sack full of currency notes to get home hand full of goods and this phenomenon
in economics is called ‘hyper inflation’. I quite agree with the PM on this
that “this is a serious issue” but I do not agree with him that “there is no
simple solution”. The macro economic theory suggests that if the government
expenditure is more than its revenue, it is good for the economy. This fiscal deficit
is funded through deficit financing (printing of currency notes without a basis)
and if this excess money is spent wisely on developmental projects, it will generate
employment which in turn will generate consumption which in the long run, will boost
production leading to further employment and further consumption and thus this
spiraling goes on gradually year after year to increase our GDP in a controlled
way, keeping inflation under check. The word of caution is that such deficit financing
must be kept under control as they tend to cause inflation in the short run. As
against this backdrop, the Indian Government has been steadily infusing excess
currency into the system under all kind of schemes intended to reach the poor
and build national infrastructure. But sadly, the money instead of developing the
much needed infrastructure and generating employment and income for the poor is
being siphoned off and stashed into Swiss bank by corrupt politicians, bureaucrats
and contractors. Some amounts remain within India stashed in bank lockers, and some
get converted into ‘benami’ property both in India and Abroad and a small
amount gets spent. Therefore, steadily the deficit financing as a percentage of
GDP (BE) has been growing each year and it stands at a staggering figure of Rs 1,41,587
Crore in the first two months of 2012-13 itself, constituting 27.6 per cent of
the budget estimates (BE) for the entire financial year. The government is targeting
at 5.1 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) for this year which going by
this trend is utopian. On the other hand the revenue deficit, too, is fast
approaching the BE, at 33.8 per cent in the first two months itself.
What
does this mean to a lay man? The real income of the poor did not increase and
hence the consumption of basic goods did not increase and thus the production
did not increase resulting in lower employment, lesser incomes, and lesser
consumptions and so on…. Thus clearly the economy has been negatively spiraling
over the years. No wonder the share of agriculture in the GDP has been steadily
reducing and farmers are committing suicide because the per capita consumption
of basic goods like agricultural products have reduced in real terms and is not
fetching better returns to the farmers. Lower production is leading to food
inflation which in turn is reducing the per capita consumption even further. On
the other hand the demand of high end goods and services which caters to the
needs of the rich has been increasing steadily and no wonder the contribution
of service sector to the GDP is increasing.
Internationally
this mindless infusion of money in to the system is debasing our currency and this
is one primary reason for depreciation in the value of Rupee against US $,
because a huge amount of the rupee has no basis to exist. This is resulting in
increase in the current account deficit (payment deficit caused due to import-exports).
The imports are becoming expensive and thus we owe more to the foreign
countries from where we import. This will eventually lead to a repeat of 1992
when we had to sell gold and devalue our currency.
Where
does all this take us to? It is simple. The divide between the rich and the
poor will grow and if this is unchecked the country will soon witness a bloody civil
war. The farmers are gradually selling away their lands for survival and while it
may see through one generation, what happens to the next generation is the
major question? The rise in crime rate in the society is a clear warning of an
impending civil war. Thus, I firmly believe the government must wake up from
its deep slumber and announce a date by which all are to justify their deposits
abroad and thereafter confiscate the unaccounted money.
The
question is what could be done with that money? Of course the answer is not what
team Anna is trying to suggest. If that huge sum of 1,456 Lac Crores is
distributed to villages as being professed, the poor will die of hunger due to
inflation. At best this brought in black money can be defaced and our cumulative
fiscal deficit be reduced by that extent. This will strengthen the value of the
currency and our current account deficit will reduce. We will be able to import
oil, which constitutes a major portion of our total imports, at a cheaper rate
and thus the price of fuel can be brought down. This will have a great impact
to start with. There will be more money available for consumption in the hands
of the middle class which will spur up demand and eventually the supply. Once
the oil prices come down, the general price level of almost all products will
come down. The poor will start feeling comfortable and can get absorbed by the
growing industry / farm sectors and this process alone can bring positive buoyancy
in economic activity.
This
is not enough. As a parallel action, the government must declare a date to
deposit Rs 1000 and Rs 500 currency notes and justify the source of income and
take a new currency note instead. After that, the old currency notes must be debarred.
This way the entire currency stashed up in lockers will fall out and find its
way into temple donation boxes. This way the cumulative fiscal deficit can be further
reduced. While this process may not be all that easy, where there is will there
is always a way. Having done this, the government must ensure that the various
schemes are implemented properly for which a strong ‘lokpal’ is a must. Unless
there is deterrence in our society, the history will repeat. While the whole
world criticizes the Arab nations, the singular reason for low crime rate in
these countries is deterrence in the form of capital punishments. Let us realize
that if capital punishment is bad the other extreme of no punishment is worse.
Why Mr.
PM and the government is not keen in sorting out this issue is quite clear from
the expose made by Julian Assange. Assange has done this much, let us do the
remaining and crack the whip.